EFAS FORMAL FLOOD NOTIFICATION (prev. EFAS Flood Alert)

An EFAS Formal Flood Notification is issued when the probability of exceeding critical flood thresholds are forecasted more than 2 days ahead in a river basin with a minimum upstream area of 2000 km2 where there is EFAS partner. The forecast also must be persistent (see below under criteria) and at least one deterministic forecast must exceed the EFAS 5-year return period. Formal flood notifications are automatically added to the ERCC overview (restricted information) and disseminated to the ERCC and the Civil Protection.

Criteria:

  •     Catchment part of CoA (Condition of Access)
  •     Catchment area >= 2000 km2
  •     Event >= 48 h ahead
  •     3 consecutive forecasts with >= 30% exceeding EFAS 5 year return period according to ECMWF ENS or to COSMO-LEPS forecasts
  •      At least one of ECMWF or DWD forecast exceeds EFAS 5 year return period.

EFAS INFORMAL FLOOD NOTIFICATION (prev. EFAS Flood Watch)

The EFAS Informal Flood Notification is issued when a probability of exceeding critical flood thresholds are forecasted in a river basin where there is an EFAS partner but the forecasted event does not satisfy the rules of an EFAS Formal Flood Notification, e.g. warning lead time, size of river basin, or location of event. An EFAS Informal Flood Notification can also be issued if EFAS results are not conclusive but one of the multiple forecasts indicates risk of severe flooding. Informal flood notifications are sent to ERCC.

Criteria:

  • Any of the criteria for formal flood notification is not met
  • Catchment part of CoA (Condition of Access)
  • Catchment >= 1000 km2
  • Any other doubt

EFAS FLASH FLOOD NOTIFICATION (prev. EFAS Flash Flood Watch)

An EFAS Flash Flood Notification is issued when the probability of exceeding a 5 year return period magnitude of the surface runoff index is forecasted to be equal or greater than 10% and the forecasted start of the event is =< 48 hours in a region where there is an EFAS partner. Flash flood notifications are sent to the ERCC.

EFAS Flash flood notifications are issued for administrative regions not for basins.

Criteria:

  • Catchment part of CoA (Condition of Access)
  • Probability of 5 year ERIC return period >= 10%
  • Start of event <= 48 hours ahead

EFAS ERCC OVERVIEW

A daily overview is sent to the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) of the European Commission which contains information on ongoing and forecasted floods in Europe as reported by the national services and forecasted by EFAS.